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China’s EV Trucks to Outpace Diesel by 2028


China’s EV Truck Leadership

China is rapidly establishing itself as a global frontrunner in the adoption of electric heavy-duty trucks (EV trucks), surpassing other nations in both sales and technological advancements. While the country has already achieved significant success with personal electric vehicles, its progress in electrifying the heavy-duty trucking sector is particularly noteworthy. In 2023, electric trucks accounted for 10% of all heavy-duty truck sales in China. This figure demonstrates a substantial commitment to transitioning away from traditional combustion engines in commercial vehicles.

The adoption rate saw a significant boost towards the end of the year, with electric trucks making up 20.9% of all heavy-duty trucks sold in China in December 2024. This surge indicates growing acceptance and demand for electric commercial vehicles, driven by supportive policies and technological improvements. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reported an even higher percentage of new electric trucks purchased last year, at 13%, further emphasizing the upward trend. Simultaneously, diesel truck sales experienced a decline, dropping from 70% in 2023 to 57% in 2024, showcasing a clear shift in market preference towards electric alternatives.

Metric2023December 2024
Electric Truck Market Share10%20.9%
Diesel Truck Market Share70%57%


CATL’s Prediction and Strategy

Central to this transformative shift is CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited), a Chinese battery manufacturing giant. Zeng Yuqun, the head of CATL, forecasts that electric heavy-duty trucks will command 50% of the Chinese market by 2028. Should this prediction materialize, diesel-powered vehicles will no longer be the dominant choice for heavy-duty commercial transportation in China. The rise of natural gas and fuel cell electric vehicles further diversifies the landscape of alternative propulsion methods.

To support the widespread adoption of electric trucks, CATL is actively establishing a network of battery-swapping stations. These stations will utilize the company’s newly launched 75# standardized battery module, designed to be compatible with approximately 95% of all electric trucks. Each station will have the capacity to handle 700,000 kWh of battery swaps daily, with each swap taking around five minutes. CATL plans to build 300 such stations by the end of the year. By 2030, the company aims to extend this network to cover 93,000 miles (150,000 km) of roads across 16 major cities, meeting 80% of the country’s road freight needs. This ambitious infrastructure project is crucial to achieving and surpassing the 50% market share target for heavy-duty EVs.


Economic and Environmental Incentives

The shift towards electric trucks in China is motivated by both environmental and economic factors. The Chinese government is actively promoting the adoption of EVs through supportive policies, aiming to reduce carbon emissions significantly. It is estimated that 60% of China’s carbon emissions come from commercial vehicles hauling freight, making the electrification of this sector a high priority.

Beyond environmental benefits, there are substantial economic incentives for truck operators to switch to electric trucks. CATL estimates that using its battery-swapping stations can save operators $8,300 (60,000 yuan) for every 62,000 miles (100,000 km) traveled. These savings, combined with reduced maintenance costs and government subsidies, make electric trucks an increasingly attractive option for businesses.


Emerging EV Truck Models

Chinese manufacturers of heavy-duty EVs are not only focused on the domestic market but also have ambitions to expand internationally. The Windrose E1400, a long-haul truck resembling the Tesla Semi, is one such example. It features a central driving position and is expected to enter production soon, boasting a claimed range of 416 miles with a combined tractor and trailer weight of 98,000 pounds (49 tons).

The Windrose E1400 achieves this range thanks to a massive 729 kilowatt-hour LFP battery pack, which can be recharged at almost 1 megawatt using sufficiently powerful chargers connected to its two charging ports. Its efficiency is estimated at around 1.75 kWh per mile, making it more energy-efficient than the Tesla Semi, which consumes around 2 kWh per mile when fully loaded. Other notable models include those from Sany, offering even larger batteries, such as a 1,165 kWh battery pack providing a claimed range of 497 miles (800 km). The availability of such advanced and efficient electric trucks, combined with the expanding battery-swapping infrastructure, makes the goal of 50% electric truck adoption seem increasingly attainable.


Frequently Asked Questions


What is driving the growth of electric heavy-duty trucks in China?

The growth is driven by a combination of factors, including supportive government policies, advancements in battery technology, the establishment of battery-swapping infrastructure, and economic incentives for truck operators.


How does CATL’s battery-swapping technology work?

CATL’s battery-swapping stations use standardized battery modules (75#) compatible with most electric trucks. These stations allow for quick battery replacements, taking approximately five minutes per swap, significantly reducing downtime compared to traditional charging methods.


What are the economic benefits of using electric trucks?

Electric trucks offer several economic advantages, including lower fuel costs (electricity vs. diesel), reduced maintenance expenses, and potential savings from using battery-swapping stations. CATL estimates savings of $8,300 (60,000 yuan) for every 62,000 miles (100,000 km) traveled using their battery-swapping service.

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